The uncertain future
of the Republican Party

Can the Republican government in exile revive post-Trump?

By Byron Toben

It may seem odd to call the GOP (Grand Old Party) as one “in exile.” But it’s not just me. Use of the term goes back as far as 2016 in The Atlantic, New Yorker and Washington Post, as growing numbers of influential Republican figures became “Never Trumpers.”

In 2018, a podcast series, “Radio Free GOP,” was formed.

A growing realization that the Trump takeover was more akin to a cult than a loyal opposition differing on various policy issues has gained creditability.

Now, two days before the November 3 election, here’s what may happen to the formal Republican Party in two scenarios. But before we get to those two scenarios, let’s look at deadlines to determine who is sworn-in and when.

A growing realization that the Trump takeover was more akin to a cult than a loyal opposition differing on various policy issues has gained creditability.

The president and vice president are sworn-in on January 20, 2021. The chief justice of the U.S. Supreme Court, John Roberts, administers the oaths.

The Congress is sworn in earlier, on January 3.

For the Senate, one third of the 100 senators are up for election or re-election. The incumbent vice president, Michael Pence, administers the oath.

For the House, this is all 435 voting seats. The Dean of the House (the longest-serving representative, currently Don Young (R) of Alaska) administers the oath to the speaker-elect (presumably Nancy Pelosi). The speaker then swears in the other members of the House.

The U.S. Senate floor – Image: Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

A prediction

The above dates will likely be delayed by court action initiated by Trump, claiming that mail votes are illegal/too late/defective due to minor technicalities. Also, that in-person votes were largely made by ineligible voters who are illegal immigrants/felons/imposters.

Trump has also claimed that television projections on the night of the election should govern and that voters should have the right to change their vote due to the late-alleged “proof” of a Biden family scandal involving China.

Should these contestations in local, state and federal courts have no resolution before January 3 or 20, the United States will be faced with having no Congress and no administration, leaving the door open to Trump issuing a state of emergency executive order that he continue in office until the matters are otherwise resolved.

‘His niece, Mary Trump, a licensed psychologist, has recently declared that he would “stop at nothing” to preserve his presidency.’

Failing a peaceful solution, Trump might well then declare a military one. Since the U.S. armed forces are dedicated to not intervening in domestic politics, he has a following of border officials, sheriffs and irregulars (Proud Boys, Boogaloo Boys, QAnons) to call upon for enforcement. The Theatre of the Absurd leads to the road of fascism.

Sounds too extreme? His niece, Mary Trump, a licensed psychologist, has recently declared that he would “stop at nothing” to preserve his presidency.

Scenario one

Trump loses and Democrats gain control of the Senate

The Republican anti-Trumpers (Lincoln Project, RVAT, Alternative RNC) have their best chance to save the GOP by engaging in sober discussion and compromise with the new situation. They will still face opposition from the former Trump cultists who may even hope for a Trump return in 2024 since he is still eligible for a second term even if there is an intervening loss.

Who would be the new Republican leader? Already, boys and girls, potential Republican presidential possibilities are sniffing around. I have often quoted former Quebec premier Robert Bourassa that “In politics, a month is an eternity.” So, the U.S. public faces 48 months of eternities where factors unforeseen and persons yet unknown may emerge.

‘The Republican anti-Trumpers… have their best chance to save the GOP by engaging in sober discussion and compromise with the new situation.’

But Ballotpedia has recently prepared such a list. Of politicians, they include:

4 governors: Greg Abbott (Texas), Ron DeSantis (Florida), Mike DeWine (Ohio) and Larry Hogan (Maryland)

2 ex-governors: Nikki Haley (South Carolina and UN ambassador) and Mike Pence (Indiana and U.S. vice president)

8 senators: Tom Cotton (Arkansas), Ted Cruz (Texas), Josh Hawley (Missouri), Mike Lee (Utah), Marco Rubio (Florida), Ben Sasse (Nebraska). Rick Scott (Florida) and Tim Scott (South Carolina)

1 secretary of state: Mike Pompeo

From business or public:

Tucker Carlson, Fox News anchor
Donald Trump, Jr., businessman/political advisor
Ivanka Trump, businesswoman/political advisor

The U.S. Capitol building where Congress convenes – Image: Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

Scenario two

Trump wins and Republicans retain Senate majority

The Republican Party in exile will have to decide whether it is best to claim that it is the “real” Republican Party or formally declare the creation of a new conservative entity. (Even choosing a name would be difficult. We’re still awaiting one for the NFL football team, the Washington Redskins.)

How about the Progressive Conservatives? It worked in Canada for a while. Name aside, do you continue to claim that you are the true party of Lincoln or decide to become a better-financed Libertarian type of party?

‘The Republican Party in exile will have to decide whether it is best to claim that it is the “real” Republican Party or formally declare the creation of a new conservative entity.’

By the way, both Democrats and Republicans claimed that they are the descendants of Thomas Jefferson. They are both right. Jefferson created a “Democratic-Republican” party.
His Republican side splintered off and was dead until the modern version burst upon us with Honest Abe Lincoln. The Republicans did indeed do more for African-Americans post-Civil War.

“Dixiecrat” Southern voters dominated the Democrats until Franklin Roosevelt forged an uneasy alliance of Northern Liberals and Dixiecrats. A takeover of Southern Republicans by former Dixiecrat types was accelerated by strategist Karl Rove’s “Southern Strategy.” Hence Black Americans have been more attracted to the modern Democratic Party.

I invite readers to add their comments to this overall analysis.

Feature image: Gage Skidmore via StockPholio.net

More articles from Byron Toben

Byron Toben, a past president of The Montreal Press Club, has been WestmountMag.ca’s theatre reviewer since July 2015. Previously, he wrote for since terminated web sites Rover Arts and Charlebois Post, print weekly The Downtowner and print monthly The Senior Times. He also is an expert consultant on U.S. work permits for Canadians.