Canada-U.S. climate outlook
under a Trump presidency

An environmental retrenchment will have major implications for Canada-U.S. relations

By Andrew Burlone

August 22, 2024

Artificial intelligence (AI) tools are finding increasing applications in journalism, offering analytical capabilities and expansive knowledge. In this interview, we leverage an AI assistant named Claude to explore the environmental policy implications for Canada under hypothetical U.S. political scenarios, providing a nuanced perspective on these important bilateral issues.

The election of a Trump/Vance administration in the United States would likely usher in a dramatic shift in environmental policy, with significant ramifications for the relationship between Canada and its southern neighbour. While a potential Democrat administration presents opportunities for enhanced cross-border cooperation on climate change and environmental protection, a Trump administration would chart a markedly different course, potentially eroding decades of progress on shared ecological concerns.

Under such a hypothetical administration, the priority would be on rolling back regulations, withdrawing from international climate agreements, and promoting the interests of the fossil fuel industry over the development of renewable energy sources. This retrenchment of environmental protections could have far-reaching implications, particularly for Canada, which has long viewed the United States as a critical partner in addressing the global climate crisis.

A Trump administration would chart a markedly different course, potentially eroding decades of progress on shared ecological concerns.

One of the most immediate areas of contention would likely be the Arctic region, in which both Canada and the United States have claims and interests. A Trump/Vance administration might seek to expand oil and gas exploration and extraction in the Arctic, reversing the more cautious approach of previous governments. This could directly conflict with Canada’s emphasis on sustainable development and environmental stewardship in the fragile northern ecosystems.

Continuing our enquiry started with the Canada-U.S. climate outlook under a Harris/Walz scenario, WestmountMag asked Claude.ai about this complex political and environmental scenario.

WM: Concerning the potential impact on the contentious issue of pipelines between Canada and the United States, how might a future Trump administration’s environmental policies affect this critical infrastructure?

Claude: That’s a great question. A Trump administration would likely take a much more permissive approach to pipeline development compared to the Harris/Walz scenario we discussed earlier. The Republicans’ priority would be on promoting fossil fuel interests over environmental concerns, which could have significant ramifications for Canada.

‘The Republicans’ priority would be on promoting fossil fuel interests over environmental concerns, which could have significant ramifications for Canada.’

One of the key areas of concern would be the approval and expansion of cross-border pipelines. A Trump White House might seek to fast-track the approval process, rolling back regulations and environmental assessments that have traditionally slowed down or blocked certain pipeline projects. This could include reviving proposals like the Keystone XL pipeline, a controversial proposed extension of the existing Keystone Pipeline System that would have transported crude oil from Alberta, Canada to refineries in the United States and that was rejected under the Obama administration.

WM: How would that impact Canada’s own plans and policies around pipelines and energy infrastructure?

Claude: Well, it would likely create a major point of friction between Canada and the United States. Canada has taken a more cautious, balanced approach to pipeline development, seeking to weigh economic benefits against environmental protection and the rights of Indigenous communities. A Trump administration’s more permissive stance could undermine those efforts, making it challenging for Canada to maintain its own standards and regulations.

‘The unilateral approval of cross-border pipelines by the U.S. could force Canada’s hand, compelling it to either acquiesce to American demands or risk further damaging the bilateral relationship.’

Moreover, the unilateral approval of cross-border pipelines by the U.S. could force Canada’s hand, compelling it to either acquiesce to American demands or risk further damaging the bilateral relationship. This could put Canadian policymakers in a difficult position, as they would need to balance economic interests, environmental concerns, and the need to preserve crucial trade and security ties with their largest partner.

WM: I can see how that would create significant tensions. Are there any potential upsides or opportunities that Canada could explore in this scenario?

Claude: Canada may have a few potential avenues to navigate the challenging situation created by a Trump administration’s environmental policies. One possibility could be to double down on developing its domestic energy infrastructure and pursuing alternative export routes, such as pipelines to Canada’s west coast. This would reduce the country’s reliance on cross-border pipelines and the whims of American environmental policy.

Canada might seek to leverage its expertise in sustainable energy development and environmental stewardship to position itself as a more attractive partner for international investors and businesses looking to operate in North America. By showcasing its commitment to responsible resource development, Canada could attract clean energy projects and green infrastructure investments that the U.S. might forgo.

‘Canada might seek to leverage its expertise in sustainable energy development and environmental stewardship to position itself as a more attractive partner for international investors…’

WM: Those are interesting possibilities. What kind of diplomatic and political challenges would Canada face in trying to chart its own course on this issue?

Claude: You’re right, there would be significant diplomatic and political hurdles for Canada to overcome. Firstly, the country would need to be prepared for increased pressure and potentially even retaliation from the U.S. if it pursued policies that were seen as undermining American energy interests. This could manifest in the form of trade disputes, regulatory roadblocks, or even threats to the broader Canada-U.S. relationship.

Domestically, Canada would also need to navigate the complex interplay between federal and provincial/territorial jurisdictions when it comes to energy and environmental policy. Some provinces may be more aligned with the U.S. approach, creating potential rifts within the country. Careful coordination and consensus-building would be essential to present a united front.

Additionally, Canada would need to ensure that its own policies and regulations are airtight, able to withstand legal challenges and withstand potential retaliatory measures from the U.S. Failure to do so could undermine the country’s credibility and bargaining power on the international stage.

‘Canada’s deep institutional knowledge, commitment to environmental protection, and experience in balancing economic and ecological priorities will be crucial assets.’

WM: Those are all important considerations. In your assessment, how well-equipped is Canada to handle this type of environmental policy conflict with the United States?

Claude: Canada has a strong track record of navigating complex environmental and energy-related issues with its southern neighbour, but a Republican administration’s approach would certainly test the country’s diplomatic and policy-making mettle. Canada’s deep institutional knowledge, commitment to environmental protection, and experience in balancing economic and ecological priorities will be crucial assets.

However, the sheer scale of the potential policy divide, the power dynamics at play, and the high stakes involved in the Canada-U.S. relationship mean that Canada would need to be exceptionally strategic, nimble, and resolute in its approach. It would require tireless diplomacy, robust domestic policy-making, and the ability to forge new alliances and partnerships – both within North America and globally – to effectively mitigate the impact of a Trump/Vance administration’s environmental agenda on Canada’s interests.

‘… Canada’s success in navigating this challenge will depend on its ability to leverage its strengths, adapt to changing circumstances, and demonstrate the value of its environmental leadership…’

Ultimately, Canada’s success in navigating this challenge will depend on its ability to leverage its strengths, adapt to changing circumstances, and demonstrate the value of its environmental leadership – not just to the U.S., but to the international community as a whole.

WM: One final question, Claude – how do you think a Conservative government under Pierre Poilievre in Canada would navigate the relationship with a hypothetical Trump/Vance administration in the United States?

Claude: That’s an interesting question. The relationship between a Conservative government under Pierre Poilievre and a Trump/Vance administration in the U.S. would still be a complex and potentially delicate one, given the divergent approaches to environmental policy we’ve discussed.

On the surface, there may appear to be some ideological alignment, as both the Poilievre Conservatives and the Trump/Vance Republicans tend to prioritize economic interests and resource development over stringent environmental regulations. This could create opportunities for collaboration on certain cross-border energy and infrastructure projects that a more environmentally-focused administration may have blocked.

‘Poilievre would need to navigate a careful balance, seeking to maintain positive relations with the U.S. while also preserving Canada’s hard-won environmental and social policies.’

However, Canada’s long-standing commitments to international climate agreements, as well as its growing emphasis on sustainable development and Indigenous reconciliation, could put the Poilievre government at odds with the Trump/Vance administration’s more unilateral and industry-friendly approach. Poilievre would need to navigate a careful balance, seeking to maintain positive relations with the U.S. while also preserving Canada’s hard-won environmental and social policies.

Additionally, the political dynamics within Canada could complicate the federal government’s ability to fully align with the Trump/Vance agenda. Provincial and territorial leaders, as well as Indigenous communities, may push back against efforts to weaken environmental protections, potentially creating tensions between Ottawa and the rest of the country.

Ultimately, a Poilievre-led Conservative government would likely seek to find common ground with the U.S. on economic and trade issues but would need to tread carefully when it comes to environmental policy in order to safeguard Canada’s interests and reputation on the global stage. Deft diplomacy and a willingness to chart an independent course would be essential in this hypothetical scenario.

WM: That’s a very insightful assessment, Claude. It’s clear that this would be a complex and high-stakes situation for Canada to navigate. Thank you for your time and for providing such a comprehensive perspective on these complex and interconnected issues.

Claude: You’re most welcome. Analyzing the potential interactions between Canadian and American environmental policies and political dynamics is a fascinating challenge. Canada has the expertise and determination to chart a prudent course forward, even in the face of significant headwinds. I appreciate you taking the time to have this discussion with me. And don’t forget to ask your readers to leave their comments below.

Feature image: Vilius Kukanauskas – Pixabay

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Claude.ai is named after Claude Shannon, a pioneering figure in information theory and digital circuit design. Shannon’s work laid essential foundations for modern computing and artificial intelligence, making him a fitting namesake for an AI model developed by Anthropic. claude.ai