Jagmeet Singh pivots to
support of Liberal minority

NDP leader seeks influence in upcoming Parliament

By Irwin Rapoport

April 17, 2025

Last Friday, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh admitted what nearly everyone in Canada already knew – that the April 28 federal election is a contest between the Liberals and Conservatives.

Until this point, Singh was campaigning on the premise that his party could form a government despite consistent polling that shows the NDP hovering below ten percent of popular support, with the latest poll giving them only eight percent. Several recent news reports are suggesting that Singh may even lose his British Columbia seat.

Delivering a speech at the Broadbent Institute’s annual conference last Friday, Singh publicly threw in the towel. Without actually saying the words “minority government”, Singh asked Canadians to give his party enough seats in the Commons to prevent a Liberal or Conservative majority government. Here are some highlights of his speech:

“Ottawa works best when there’s someone there to hold the powerful to account.”

“The things Canadians are most proud of — the things that make us believe in this country — only happened because New Democrats fought for them. We don’t waste the power you give us; we wield it for people.”

Singh asked Canadians to give his party enough seats in the Commons to prevent a Liberal or Conservative majority government.

In my article, Federal Election 2025: Is the Bloc a factor?, the possibility of a minority government was raised, along with the Bloc Québécois usurping the NDP as the new kingmaker.

A CTV National News report noted that: “The website 338Canada.com, which aggregates and analyzes polling data, suggests current support would put the NDP at just eight seats after election day, compared to the 25 seats it won in 2021.”

Those 25 seats were crucial to the NDP holding the balance of power, which ensured the survival of Justin Trudeau’s minority Liberal government. At this point, it is doubtful the party will win the twelve seats necessary to retain official party status in Parliament.

CTV News also highlighted a message Singh shared with the party faithful last Thursday, “in which Singh said the NDP would not support a Conservative government, but has not ruled out supporting a Liberal minority – so long as the NDP could once again advance its priorities.”

Singh literally answered one of the questions my article posed: “What concessions would Singh demand to back a Liberal minority – or could he ever support a Conservative one?”

The NDP leader, in his Friday speech, noted that he is willing to support a Liberal minority government led by Mark Carney, completing the response to the question. “It’s not that the Liberals don’t talk a good game. They do; I admit it. And some (Liberals) may genuinely believe in the things we fight for. But they only deliver when New Democrats have had the power to make them deliver.”

Singh’s pitch to voters has a few snags. Firstly, NDP support is bleeding heavily as people are planning to vote Liberal to prevent a Conservative majority or minority government. Secondly, Singh’s plea to progressive voters, while good in theory, translates into a scenario where a vote split could occur, allowing the Conservatives to form a government.

‘… Singh’s plea to progressive voters, while good in theory, translates into a scenario where a vote split could occur, allowing the Conservatives to form a government.’

The Conservatives, with only 38 percent support according to recent polling, have been unable to appeal to Canadians in the center and the left. Moreover, Tory leader Pierre Poilievre, based on his recent speeches, is slipping back into the rhetoric that has turned off many voters – “axe the taxes”, “build the homes”, and “tough on crime” comments that rely on fear-mongering, insinuating that people from coast-to-coast put their live at risk daily by simply going out in public and that even their homes are unsafe.

Unless the Liberal screw up big time between now and April 28, they have a reasonably good chance to form a razor-thin majority government or a strong minority government. Singh is counting on this outcome to prevent his party from entering a death spiral leading to political oblivion.

So, where does this leave the other parties?

The Green Party is spinning its wheels, having not recovered from the self-destruction it experienced when its new leader, Annamie Paul, who is Jewish, was publicly attacked before the 2021 federal election by pro-Palestine party members who placed their concerns over the good of the party and the environment. Until this point, the Greens had been increasing their overall public support, having reached the five percent plus level and were making gains in the vote-rich Greater Toronto Area.

They are now back at the two percent level. Co-leader Elizabeth May should be able to retain her Saanich-Gulf Islands seat in British Columbia. Co-leader Jonathan Pedneault is a candidate in the Outremont riding, and his chances of winning are nil. As a candidate in the 2023 NDG-Westmount by-election to replace Transport Minister Marc Garneau, he secured 9.8 percent of the vote. May will likely be the sole Green MP in the new Parliament. However, she may hold a lot of power should a Liberal minority government be elected.

As for the Bloc, leader Yves-François Blanchet is now frantically focusing his attacks on Carney and the Liberals, claiming that Carney does “not understand Quebec,” speaks French poorly, and that a Liberal government would weaken French in Quebec based on Carney stating that a government would intervene in the case against Bill 96 when it reaches the Supreme court due to its use of the notwithstanding clause to shield it from legal challenges. Carney stressed that the Liberals were the party “of the Charter [of Rights and Freedoms]” in defence of his pledge.

‘Unless the Liberal screw up big time between now and April 28, they have a reasonably good chance to form a razor-thin majority government or a strong minority government.’

Bloc support is experiencing a slight decline as Liberal support in Quebec continues to increase, and in many Bloc-held ridings, every vote counts as the party relies on vote splitting to win many of its seats. The Bloc had 33 seats before the election call, and Blanchet is now campaigning to minimize any potential losses. He is depending on a tour-de-force performance during the April 16 French leaders’ debate.

Likewise, Poilievre is keen to hammer away at Carney and the Liberals during the April 17 English leaders’ debate to assuage voters worried about the impacts of a Conservative government. Last week, Poilievre attempted to circumvent an expected attack by the Liberals and NDP on the subject of abortion. He stated that his party will not initiate any legislation to prevent access to abortion services. In the last three elections, the Conservatives had to reiterate they would not bring forth legislation that threatened to restrict same-sex marriage and abortion services.

So here we are, and if Carney performs well in the debates and the Liberals’ ground game is up to the task, a Liberal government is a definite possibility.

Of course, we may have three or four April surprises, but I believe the more the opposition laces into Carney’s character, finances, alleged conflicts of interest, and attempts to link him to Justin Trudeau’s policies, the more voters in Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada will park their votes with the Liberals.

Singh answered the question my article posed for him on his own volition. We now need the media to ask Carney and Poilievre if either will strike deals with the Bloc or NDP to secure power. And what guarantees would Yves-François Blanchette require to back either party? This week’s leaders’ debates would be the perfect opportunity. Stay tuned.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of WestmountMag.ca or its publishers.

Feature image: Jagmeet Singh (L) with supporter, courtesy of the NDP