Where to build a future
as the climate transforms

Canada and Quebec stand out in a world where seasons are no longer reliable

Par Andrew Burlone

February 28, 2026

In just a few decades, climate change has gone from a scientific hypothesis to a tangible reality. Heat waves are intensifying, floods are becoming more frequent, and wildfires are increasingly commonplace. Low‑lying coasts are home to hundreds of millions of people living in areas threatened by rising seas and more frequent storms. Large deltas, coastal megacities and low‑lying islands will, in many cases, have to invest heavily in protection or retreat inland. A question that was once marginal is now central to public debate: where will we still be able to survive on this planet a generation from now?

Large deltas, coastal megacities and low‑lying islands will, in many cases, have to invest heavily in protection or retreat inland.

The question of moving is about much more than a climate risk map. It cuts to deeply personal dimensions: language, culture, family ties, job prospects, preferred lifestyle (urban, suburban, rural), and attachment to a place or community. Thinking about what the world will look like 25 years from now means layering several lenses: the physical one (heat, floods, wildfires, sea‑level rise) and the institutional and socio‑cultural one, which includes the quality of governance, the robustness of infrastructure, the strength of health and social protection systems, and the fabric and cohesion of communities.

Global map of climate vulnerability

Some regions will see their habitability deteriorate rapidly under the combined effects of extreme heat, sea‑level rise, drought and recurring severe weather events. Others, by contrast, will become relatively more attractive – not because they are truly safe, but because the risks there will be lower and more manageable than almost anywhere else. On the global climate risk map, some territories already stand out as future hotspots of vulnerability, while others emerge as places where communities are more likely to remain resilient.

Two broad resilience blocs are particularly notable. First, Northern Europe – Scandinavia, the Alpine countries and Central Europe – where a still‑temperate climate, robust infrastructure and strong welfare states together offer a significant comparative advantage. Second, North America, and within it the inland regions of the United States and Canada located around the 45th parallel. In this second bloc, a crucial part of the future is at stake: North America, long a land of immigration for economic reasons, could become a preferred destination for climate‑related reasons.

‘A question that was once marginal is now central to public debate: where will we be able to survive on this planet a generation from now?’

Elsewhere, temperatures will regularly reach dangerous levels for human health in many parts of the world, especially when combined with high humidity. On top of these heat waves will come recurrent droughts, putting pressure on agriculture, access to drinking water and social stability. Some territories will also be hit hard by increasingly intense wildfires, cyclones, hurricanes and torrential rains. Think of parts of California, Australia, Southeast Asia or the Gulf of Mexico, where “disaster season” already seems to be getting longer year after year.

For years now, warning signs have been multiplying in the southern and central United States. Heat waves there are becoming longer and more intense, droughts more frequent and fires more destructive. Along the coasts, hurricanes are gaining strength and flood risks are rising, while the slow but relentless increase in sea level undermines low‑lying shoreline areas. These realities have a direct impact on liveability and on the cost of living: insurance premiums are skyrocketing, infrastructure has to be rebuilt, and some neighbourhoods are emptying out or changing character.

Internal population movements are already visible toward states further north or at higher elevations, where the heat is still more bearable. In contrast, a few broad trends are emerging. Regions located further north or at higher altitudes, with good access to freshwater and solid institutions, appear better equipped to face the coming decades. They are not truly “safe zones” – there is no such thing as zero risk – but they are territories where the impacts remain, for now, more compatible with a comfortable life and sustained economic activity.

The gradual shift northward

The northern United States – particularly the Great Lakes region – and Canada are emerging as natural destinations for this climate‑driven shift within the continent, thanks in part to North America’s structural advantages. North America has relatively well‑developed infrastructure: road and rail networks, health‑care systems, education systems and significant energy capacity. It also benefits from vast freshwater reserves and extensive farmland, especially in Canada and around the Great Lakes.

‘North America, long a land of immigration for economic reasons, could now become a preferred destination for climate‑related ones.’

The continent’s adaptive capacity is also noteworthy. Overall wealth, technological sophistication, and strong research and innovation capabilities provide important tools for redesigning cities, strengthening buildings, developing early‑warning and emergency‑management systems, and adapting agricultural practices. The key question is whether these assets will be deployed in a coordinated way with a long‑term vision, or piecemeal in response to crises as they occur.

That said, North America is far from being a homogeneous, invulnerable bloc. Wildfires, for example, pose a major risk in the western part of the continent and now affect more northern regions as well. Floods regularly hit many river valleys, including in Canada. In large metropolitan areas, urban heat islands and air pollution already raise serious public‑health concerns.

Social and regional inequalities also play a crucial role. The most vulnerable populations are often the least protected, the least well insured and the least able to move or relocate. Without ambitious public policies, the relative climate advantages of certain areas could be partly erased by social tensions and deepening territorial divides.

Within this uneven landscape, Canada stands out as a special case: an immense country, still relatively sparsely populated, with a harsh climate that could become more temperate in several regions. Despite its image as one vast, cold land of forests and lakes, the reality is more nuanced. From coast to coast, Canada encompasses a mosaic of climates and landscapes: the Pacific coast, interior plains, the Great Lakes–St. Lawrence corridor, the Canadian Shield and the Arctic North.

In a warmer world, some of these regions will face major challenges: wildfires in the West, thawing permafrost and destabilized infrastructure in the North, and flooding in certain valleys. Others will see their relative potential increase, with milder winters, longer growing seasons and a climate that, despite overall warming, remains within a still‑livable range.

‘In major metropolitan areas, urban heat islands and air pollution are already causing significant public‑health problems.’

Among the most promising areas, the Great Lakes and the St. Lawrence region play a central role. This corridor, which includes southern Ontario and Québec as well as several neighbouring U.S. states, has a key strategic asset: freshwater. This territory forms one of the largest bodies of surface freshwater on the planet. The climate is moderated by these large water masses, which help limit temperature extremes. The Prairies and parts of the central‑north will also see their growing season lengthen, creating opportunities for new crops or higher yields.

However, these advantages come with heightened risks of drought and soil erosion, making careful water and agricultural management essential. While Canada appears to be emerging as a climate refuge, this position will only be sustainable if it plans ahead for rising demographic pressures. The arrival of climate migrants, whether from other provinces, the United States or elsewhere in the world, will profoundly reshape the dynamics of cities and regions.

Meeting this challenge requires planning now for urban development, transportation, water management, energy and housing. Without such foresight, there is a real danger of reproducing, on a smaller scale, the problems already seen elsewhere: urban sprawl, overburdened infrastructure, housing pressures and deepening regional inequalities. This is where attention naturally turns to one province in particular: Quebec.

Quebec: a territory both vulnerable and resilient

Quebec holds several major advantages in a warming world. First, it has an exceptional abundance of freshwater: the St. Lawrence River, countless rivers and lakes, and significant groundwater reserves. Second, although the climate is changing rapidly, it is still likely to remain within a broadly tolerable temperature range over the long term compared with what some more southerly regions will face. Third, its energy system is largely based on hydropower and is thus relatively low‑carbon, providing a strategic advantage for meeting climate targets and supporting the electrification of transport and industry, while attracting low‑carbon economic activity.

These strengths, however, do not erase the province’s vulnerabilities. Many areas are at risk of flooding, notably the alluvial plains of the Outaouais and the Richelieu Valley. Summer heat waves are expected to intensify, with adverse health and air quality impacts, particularly in large urban centres. Wildfires are already hitting parts of the north and west of the province hard, and their effects are felt as far as the cities.

‘Amid the major climate upheaval that lies ahead, the North appears as a more favourable place than many other regions of the globe.’

For Québec, the key challenge will be to capitalize on its strengths – water, energy and a relatively temperate climate – while reducing its vulnerabilities through proactive adaptation of infrastructure, land‑use planning and its economic model. Across the province, regions do not face the same level of exposure or share the same assets. The St. Lawrence urban corridor, stretching from Montréal to Québec City via Trois‑Rivières, concentrates most of the population, jobs, institutions and infrastructure. It benefits from good accessibility, well‑developed health and education services, and a diversified economic base.

Even though this urban corridor is crucial for the future, it also comes with downsides: high density, heat islands, housing pressures and flood‑prone areas. Some low‑lying floodplains will need stronger protection or, in some cases, gradual de‑urbanization. At the same time, greening cities and retrofitting buildings will be essential to lessen the impact of heat waves.

Beyond this main axis, several regions offer an appealing balance of climate, quality of life and access to services. The Eastern Townships (Estrie), Mauricie, Saguenay–Lac‑Saint‑Jean and other slightly more northern or higher‑elevation areas all fit this profile. These less densely populated territories could become more attractive in a world where proximity to nature, access to water and a still‑temperate climate are central criteria. Northern Québec, finally, represents a more distant horizon, whose potential raises complex questions: infrastructure costs, respect for Indigenous rights and ways of life, and access to basic services.

Beyond climate maps, Québec stands out for its social model. A welfare state, public health and education systems, and a tradition of energy planning and public intervention all provide significant advantages for navigating decades of turbulence. Québec also has a strong cultural and linguistic identity. In a world being reshaped, it could become an attractive refuge, but that will require anticipating the possible arrival of new residents, rethinking integration models, and assessing institutions’ capacity to support this transformation.

The North as a favourable horizon

The choice facing Québec society is, at its core, political: either endure the coming population shifts or deliberately position itself as an organized refuge, capable of combining climate resilience with social justice. For Quebecers, this is not an abstract question; it affects the very places where they live, work and raise their children. Choosing to stay in Québec, to return, or to settle there means betting on a northern territory, rich in water and energy and backed by relatively strong public institutions, that can transform itself into a livable, welcoming and fair place over the long term. It also means accepting that nothing is guaranteed and that the territory’s resilience will depend on the collective decisions made today.

Amid the major climate upheaval that lies ahead, the North thus appears as a more favourable place than many other regions of the globe. North America, and especially Canada and Québec, combine geographic, water, energy and institutional advantages that put them in a strong position to absorb coming shocks. But it would be naïve to think latitude alone will protect us. Without deep emissions cuts, ambitious infrastructure adaptation and robust social and regional policies, the North’s relative benefits could easily be eroded by a cascade of crises.

Climate‑driven relocation is not just about finding “the right place on the map.” It is a societal project. It is about deciding how we want to inhabit, share, and shape these territories. It is about asking whether Québec will merely endure tomorrow’s population flows, or instead choose to become an exemplary refuge – both ecologically resilient and socially inclusive.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of WestmountMag.ca.

Featured image: Alain Audet – Pixabay

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Andrew Burlone, co-founder of WestmountMag.ca, began his media journey at NOUS magazine. Subsequently, he launched Visionnaires, holding the position of creative director for over 30 years. Andrew is passionate about culture and politics, with a keen interest in visual arts and architecture.