Anna Gainey re-elected
in NDG–Westmount

Incumbent handily prevails despite strong Conservative surge

By Irwin Rapoport

May 1, 2025

As expected, Incumbent Liberal MP Anna Gainey was re-elected for the NDG–Westmount riding with 63.9 % (34,116 votes) of the vote. All the signs pointed to this resounding victory despite not appearing at two candidates’ debates in NDG and Westmount, and a Candidate’s Meet and Greet in Montreal West.

My own informal polling of more than 70 residents of NDG and Montreal West led to my prediction in Notes from the election campaign in NDG–Westmount that Gainey would receive between 55 % and 60 % of the vote. I did not anticipate that Conservative candidate Neil Drabkin, who also skipped the same public appearances, would secure 10,517 (19.7 %) votes. In NDG, I met very few Conservative supporters. I don’t have the detailed voting results for each area, but I think most Conservative votes probably came from Westmount. Overall, the Conservative party increased their vote share by 6.19%.

All the signs pointed to this resounding victory despite not appearing at two candidates’ debates in NDG and Westmount, and a Candidate’s Meet and Greet in Montreal West.

The Conservative candidates in Montreal seemed to avoid talking to the media during the campaign. CJAD radio host Elias Makos couldn’t get Conservative candidates to join two radio debates or other media events, which frustrated him. However, the morning after the election, Drabkin appeared on Andrew Carter‘s radio show and later on CTV News, where he discussed his party’s future and the election results.

The NDP’s Malcolm Lewis-Richmond placed third with 7.4%, a drop of 6.41%; the Bloc Québécois’s Félix Antoine-Brault received 5%, a slight drop of 0.28%, the Green Party’s Arnold Downey 2.5%, a drop of 1.7 %, and Rachel Hoffman (Marxist-Leninist), Stephen Hensley (Rhinoceros), Marc Perez (People’s Party), and Alex Trainman Montagano (Independent) split the remainder.

Voter turnout was high

Voter turnout was high with 53,365 of 79,932 registered electors (66.76 %) participating. Most Liberal voters told me they voted for the party and/or its new leader, Mark Carney. Several said, “I like Carney,” “I voted for the banker,” and similar sentiments. They elected Carney to not only be the new prime minister, but also as their de facto MP.

The neighbouring Mount Royal riding witnessed an even greater display of Conservative strength. Voter turnout was also significant, with 50,020 of 76,951 registered electors (65 %) casting ballots. Incumbent Liberal MP Anthony Housefather, although re-elected with 51.1 %, faced a serious challenge from Conservative candidate Neil Oberman, who received 40.5 %. The NDP’s Adam Franck garnered 4.7 %, the Bloc’s Yegor Komarov 3.3 %, and the Marxist-Leninist’s Diane Johnston 0.4%.

Oberman, a Hampstead resident and lawyer, had the outright support of The Suburban for many months before the election call via editorial content. The message could not be any clearer. The candidate consistently echoed the rhetoric of Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, centring his campaign on strong support for Israel and addressing concerns within the Jewish community, including university students, about rising anti-Semitism linked to protests and actions by the Arab community and supporters of Gaza and Palestine.

The Gazette article Liberal Anthony Housefather elected to fourth term in Mount Royal riding describes the titanic struggle between Housefather and Oberman to win over the large Jewish community in the riding. In essence, it boiled down to a simple premise – if you are Jewish and you care about Israel, you must vote Conservative. This ploy did not carry into NDG-Westmount, where proponents of the Palestinian/Gaza cause were championed by Voters for Palestine. Although they launched a campaign to make the issue a priority, the voters I spoke with did not mention it.

On Tuesday afternoon, I unexpectedly ran into Downey as he was taking down his election signs. We chatted about the campaign. Although a little downhearted by the results, the Green Party candidate was far from out. He would like to run again in the riding and voice his concern for the environment.

The Liberals won 19 of the 21 Montreal Island seats. The island is recognized as a Liberal stronghold, but based on the results of the races in the NDG–Westmount and Mount Royal, there could be cause for concern. With changing demographics in terms of age ranges and the voter base, the next federal election could usher in surprises. However, should a Carney government succeed in erasing the memory of countless errors and hubris of the Justin Trudeau era, the Liberals may be in a position to dominate the Greater Montreal Area for the next 20 to 30 years.

‘There is a lot of resentment in Alberta and other provinces about having to send over $15 billion in transfer payments to the “have-not” provinces. Quebec receives about half of that money.’

While not a record turnout nationally, 19,597,674 of 28,525,638 registered electors (68.7 %) voted, with 7.3 million casting ballots at the advance polls. Liberal resurgence gave Mark Carney a very strong minority government, the Mark Carney effect providing the Liberals with 169 seats, just three short of the 172 required to form a majority government. Even though Pierre Polievre lost his Ottawa seat, the Conservatives won 144 seats. The Bloc placed third with 22, the NDP fourth with 7, thus losing official party status, and Green Party leader Elizabeth May was left as its sole representative.

On Wednesday, April 30, CTV News reported that 681 more votes in three ridings would have given the Liberals a majority government. Every vote counts, and this should be a reminder to those who believe their votes do not matter. The Liberal, with a very efficient base of support, took 43.7 % of the total vote, followed by the Conservatives with 41.3 %, Bloc Québécois with 6.3 %, NDP with 6.3 %, and Green Party with 1.2 %.

Many were predicting a strong Liberal minority or even a razor-thin majority government based on the polls released days before the election, and they were right. The Liberals made decisive gains in Quebec at the expense of the Bloc, which lost 11 seats, and the Conservatives did well in Ontario, taking those held by Liberals and NDP. West of Ontario, the Liberals won six in Manitoba, one in Saskatchewan, and two in Alberta. But the lack of Western MPs was offset in British Columbia, where the Liberals won 19 seats.

Western alienation

People have long noticed an east-west divide in Canada, with the Conservatives dominating the Prairie provinces for decades. This divide became especially clear in the 1970s, when Pierre Trudeau created Petro-Canada and introduced energy policies that upset many people in Alberta. Justin Trudeau strengthened the Conservatives’ hold by introducing environmental laws and regulations, which made many people believe the federal government is actively blocking oil, gas projects, and pipelines.

Despite this frustration, I’m not worried about Canada’s unity. In the past, even during heated times like the 1850s in the United States, people accepted election results. Today in Canada, some Conservative supporters question the polls that put the Liberals ahead, but they are not challenging the election’s legitimacy. Talk of Alberta separating from Canada is just that-talk. Only a small group of people support the idea, mostly out of frustration. Most people in the Prairies are loyal and proud Canadians, even if they disagree with the federal government.

‘Western Canada’s population is growing, and it gained most of the new seats in Parliament. Still, central and eastern Canada will continue to have the most political influence for years to come.’

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith is trying hard to push back against Ottawa. She’s passed laws and tried different tactics to give Alberta more control over its affairs. Some recent articles discuss her approach and how some Albertans are talking more seriously about separation after the Liberal win. Many early settlers in Alberta were Americans who brought with them a strong sense of independence and religious beliefs.

It’s important to remember that Alberta, Quebec, and all of Canada are built on unceded First Nations and Inuit land. Canada’s natural resources belong to everyone. Environmentalists are concerned about the impact of oil sands, pipelines, fracking, and logging in the West, but they also protest against oil projects in the East, like the Energy East pipeline and offshore drilling in Atlantic Canada, as well as forest destruction in Quebec.

Now, let’s talk about the new government. How long will a Liberal minority last? Unless the new Prime Minister calls an early election, the government should last a full four-year term. The NDP only has seven seats, and their leader resigned after losing his seat. The Green Party is down to one seat, and their co-leader also resigned. The NDP doesn’t have enough money for another national campaign right now. They want to keep their official party status in Parliament, which would give them resources and influence. The Liberals can use this as a bargaining chip to get NDP support on important votes.

The NDP says it’s important for them to have a voice in Parliament. They might make a deal with the Liberals to hold the balance of power. I believe the NDP and the Green Party will support the new government, at least for now. The Prime Minister wants to pass a budget this summer, which will require support from other parties.

The Bloc Québécois leader has already said his party could support the Liberals, as long as Quebec’s interests are respected. However, relying on the Bloc for long-term support could be risky and unpopular with Canadians. If the Liberals work with the NDP and the Greens, they could have a strong ally, especially if they agree on environmental issues. The NDP needs time to rebuild and choose a new leader. A few NDP MPs might even join the Liberals.

The media is now saying that the Liberals need a “dance partner” to survive as a minority government. The election was a two-way race between the Liberals and Conservatives, but in a minority situation, making deals is key. On election night, there was a moment when the Conservatives could have formed a minority government with the Bloc’s help. Both parties have promised to give Quebec’s government what it wants. During the campaign, the Conservative leader said he wouldn’t challenge Quebec’s controversial laws, which upset many English-speaking and cultural communities.

Lastly, polling firms have noted that younger voters between 18 and 35 lean towards the Conservatives. This is understandable as Justin Trudeau’s government spun out of control, raising taxes and constantly virtue-signalling. This left a bad taste in many mouths.

Voting patterns are not static. Situations and times change, and political parties adjust by revising their policies and guiding philosophies. Al Stewart, in his song End of the Day, sums this up perfectly with this line: “Fashions and friends come and go, everyone travels that road in their turn.”

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of WestmountMag.ca or its publishers.

Feature image: via Wikimedia Commons