Canada’s 2025 election
will shape our future

Progressives must unite to prevent a conservative surge in the federal election

By Irwin Rapoport

January 30, 2025

About two weeks ago, a friend from Westmount posed an intriguing question on Facebook: “Why would anyone spend $350,000 to win the Liberal Party of Canada leadership race to replace Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, only to be defeated three days later in a non-confidence vote?” As a Conservative supporter, my friend’s desire for an immediate election is understandable, given the widespread sentiment that Trudeau has lost his way and created numerous problems for Canada.

These issues include a ballooning national debt, substantial annual deficits, and increased taxes. The government has also been criticized for its handling of Quebec’s controversial bills 21, 40, and 96, which some consider unconstitutional. Additionally, concerns have been raised about the immigration system, the implementation of the carbon tax, and the apparent contradiction in environmental policies that simultaneously promote fossil fuel development while neglecting forest protection and biodiversity conservation.

As a Green Party voter, I’ve never supported the Liberals, Conservatives, or NDP. My voting choices have been influenced by these parties’ stances on Quebec language laws, which I believe have allowed successive Quebec governments to infringe upon individual rights and freedoms, particularly those of English-speaking and cultural communities in the province.

It’s clear that the race is one between former Finance Minister Chryastia Freeland and Mark Carney, the former governor of the Bank of Canada.

Addressing my friend’s question, it’s tempting to assume the leadership candidates are solely driven by the desire to become prime minister, regardless of potential electoral defeat. However, I believe most genuinely care about Canada’s future and aim to salvage the Liberal Party’s tarnished reputation. Some view the situation as dire, reminiscent of the party’s struggles during the Harper era, which led to Justin Trudeau’s selection as a potential saviour.

The race has essentially narrowed to a contest between former Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland and Mark Carney, ex-governor of the Bank of Canada. Carney, with substantial backing from MPs and cabinet ministers, is considered the frontrunner. His outsider status and lack of involvement in Trudeau’s cabinet give him an edge over Freeland, who’s closely associated with Trudeau’s policies.

The possibility of a brief three-day tenure as prime minister isn’t far-fetched, given the opposition parties’ calls for an immediate election. However, there’s a crucial factor at play: MPs’ pension eligibility. The Liberals recently passed legislation moving the fixed election date from October 20 to October 27, 2025, ensuring MPs elected in 2019 reach the six-year mark required for pension qualification.

Interestingly, this change primarily benefits Conservative MPs, with 32 first-time members from 2019 set to qualify.* The Liberals, having lost seats in 2019, have fewer MPs affected by this change. This pension consideration adds a layer of complexity to the political landscape and the timing of any potential election since the proposed election date change would benefit 22 Liberal MPs, 6 NDP MPs, and 20 Bloc Québécois MPs, in addition to the 32 Conservative MPs.

It’s unlikely that NDP and Bloc MPs would jeopardize their pension eligibility. The NDP faces financial constraints, limiting their ability to mount a comprehensive national campaign. Despite Jagmeet Singh’s calls for an immediate election and claims of potential victory, the party lacks the necessary resources. As for the Bloc Québécois, their MPs are also keen on securing their pensions. The party likely has sufficient funds to maintain its seats in Quebec, focusing on defending the province’s interests and maximizing federal benefits.

‘Recent polls suggest the Conservatives under Pierre Poilievre could achieve a substantial majority, potentially devastating the Liberals and NDP.’

The Bloc’s presence has significantly altered Canada’s political landscape, diverting seats from traditional national parties. Their influence has led other parties to make extensive promises to Quebec voters, perceived as nationalist-leaning. This dynamic has had a divisive effect on national politics and Quebec affairs, potentially undermining federalist Quebecers and reinforcing stereotypes about French Canadians.

Recent polls suggest the Conservatives under Pierre Poilievre could achieve a substantial majority, potentially devastating the Liberals and NDP. Given these circumstances, it’s improbable that the NDP would trigger an election. Instead, they’re likely to continue supporting the Liberal government to advance progressive legislation, as demonstrated by the Supply and Confidence Agreement.

The Conservative opposition has adopted a confrontational approach, with Pierre Poilievre employing a rhetoric reminiscent of Donald Trump‘s style, using derogatory nicknames for his political opponents, such as “sell-out Singh” for Jagmeet Singh, and “carbon tax Carney” and “carbon tax Freeland” for his Liberal rivals. This tactic of relying on catchy sound bites and one-liners is viewed by many, including myself, as off-putting and an appeal to base instincts. While Poilievre makes broad promises, he often lacks specificity in his plans.

An October election could provide a valuable opportunity for the new Liberal leader and Poilievre to engage in substantive debates about their visions and plans for Canada’s future. Canadians deserve a thorough understanding of each party’s legislative agenda, including implementation strategies and potential impacts.

There’s a pressing need for the national and local media to fulfill their role as critical interrogators rather than merely relaying information. Journalists and commentators have a responsibility to ask probing questions that elicit meaningful responses, moving beyond superficial sound bites. When faced with evasive answers, they should persist in demanding thoughtful explanations.

‘An October election could provide a valuable opportunity for the new Liberal leader and Pierre Poilievre to engage in substantive debates about their visions and plans for Canada’s future.’

Previous federal elections have often lacked the depth of reporting necessary to address the core issues affecting Canadians. Many voters, myself included, are tired of generic talking points and seek a deeper understanding of the motivations behind policies, their implementation plans, and their potential consequences.

This sentiment reflects a broader desire among Canadians to reclaim control over the political agenda. There’s growing frustration with a system where political parties present candidates who, once elected, often prioritize party loyalty over constituent representation, with backbench MPs frequently deferring to party leadership.

Assuming the NDP keeps the Liberal government alive until October, three main possibilities emerge

Despite Liberal efforts to pivot towards the center, the Conservatives could secure a substantial majority. This outcome would likely result in a significantly reduced Liberal caucus and a decimated NDP. The Bloc Québécois’ performance remains uncertain, with potential for seat retention or even gains.
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A Conservative minority government led by Poilievre could face varying degrees of opposition influence. If Liberals and NDP collectively hold more seats, they might leverage their position to constrain Conservative initiatives. Alternatively, should the Bloc maintain or expand its presence, they might support the Conservatives in exchange for concessions, particularly given Poilievre’s reluctance to intervene in provincial matters like Bills 21 and 96.
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Another Liberal minority government propped up by the NDP. This scenario hinges on Liberal and NDP supporters uniting to prevent a perceived extreme right-wing agenda under Poilievre. Such an alliance would aim to protect key institutions like the CBC, preserve essential regulations, and maintain environmental protections. This coalition could form in response to concerns about conservative policies potentially leading to institutional dismantling, deregulation, unchecked development, and environmental degradation.

The prospect of opponents to the Conservatives finding common ground and collaborating in the months leading up to October offers a glimmer of hope. Time is of the essence, and without effective cooperation, Canada may face a dramatic shift under a majority Conservative government.

‘The outcome of this election will reflect our collective vision for the country’s future, making it essential that every voice is heard and every vote is cast with careful consideration.’

The impending federal election has the potential to be truly transformative, with both immediate and far-reaching consequences. This underscores the critical need for high voter turnout and a well-informed electorate that fully grasps the complexities of the issues at stake.

As we approach this crossroads, it’s imperative that all Canadians, regardless of political leanings, recognize the significance of their participation in this democratic process. The outcome of this election will reflect our collective vision for the country’s future, making it essential that every voice is heard and every vote is cast with careful consideration.

* See the National Post article New Liberal legislation would ensure dozens of MPs secure pensions before next election

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of WestmountMag.ca or its publishers.

Feature image: William John Gauthier, StockPholio.net